Welcome, all to a new weekly segment here on CouchGuySports; Blair’s Best Bets; The Internet’s top spot for the best free NBA picks daily.
Each morning I will give you my top 3 NBA bets for FREE.
Let’s dive right in
Brooklyn Nets (-1.5) @ Toronto Raptors
Tipping at 730 pm this is expected to be one of the most exciting games on tonight’s slate.
These teams are pretty evenly matched with the public heavily favoring the traveling Brooklyn Nets.
Statistically, Brooklyn is the more favorable team here. In their last 5 games against the Tronto Raptors, the Nets have gone 4-1 ATS and currently sit on a four-game win streak. On the flip side, Toronto is also in a bit of a slump losing their last 3 in a row.
Looking at injuries Toronto will be without Otto Porter and Precious Achiuwa, OG Anunobu has also been downgraded to out with a hip injury.
On the Brooklyn side, the Nets have Patty Mills listed as doubtful to play with an illness and Seth Curry as questionable with a hamstring injury.
Looking at how evenly matched these two teams are it’s no wonder that we have a tight spread of 1.5 favoring Brooklyn. Considering both teams here are playing significantly worse on the road I’m actually going to fade the hot hand here.
Best Free Pick #1: Give me the Toronto Raptors +1.5 at home.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY SportsDenver Nuggets (-1) @ Los Angeles Lakers
Our last game of the night is sure to be one to stay awake for!
We have the red-hot (17-10) Denver Nuggets visiting the struggling (11-16) Los Angeles Lakers. Even with the Nuggets only projected to win by 1 I expect Joker and the boys to have this in the bag.
The Lakers have both of their stars listed as probable tonight with Lebron struggling with his ankle and AD having some back issues.
This will play a huge part in the Lakers being able to secure the home win since Denver is relatively healthy. The only notable Nugget not taking the floor tonight will be Michael Porter Jr. who’s out indefinitely with a heel injury.
At the risk of contradicting my last pick, this 3 game-win streak for Denver is nothing to bat an eye at. After losing to Dallas by 1 the Nuggs went on to beat Portland, Utah, and Washinton.
Denver is shooting lights out this season ranking first in field goal % (50.8% ) and 3-point % (39%).
Looking at the Edge Finder from Oddshark.com the only area where the Lakers outshine Denver is offensive and defensive rebounding. All other categories fall in favor of the #3 Denver Nuggets.
Best Free NBA Pick #2: I’ll take Denver -1 on the road
Portland Trailblazers @ Dallas Mavericks (-4)
Wow, what a slate we have tonight!
This was probably the hardest game to pick of the 3 but with two such evenly-matched teams I expect the score to be very close. The public is completely split on this one with each equal bet being placed on both sides. Dallas has been spotty at best over the last five games while Dame Time is on an absolute tear!
The only thing keeping me from going all in on Portland here is their last 3 meetings with Dallas and Luka Magic.
Over their last 3 meetings, Dallas has won all three in dominating fashion. The average score of the last 3 outings is an incredible 125-100 favoring Dallas.
But as I said before, I love to fade the hot hand.
Portland is 6-0 in their last handful of games and I don’t see them going down without a fight. This game could go either way, but no matter what I predict the score to be close.
4 points are just too much for me to give Dallas while Portland has been playing so well.
If I see any change in the spreads in favor of Dallas I will be adding to this position as well. I think Portland is due for a big upset in Dallas and tonight could be that night.
Looking at the injury reports –
Portland has downgraded Gary Paton Jr. to OUT. While Josh Hart, Drew Eubanks, and Trendon Watford are upgraded to probable.
Dallas has a smaller report with Davis Bertans listed as questionable. Maxi Kleber and Josh Green are still listed as out indefinitely with injuries.
Best Free NBA Pick #3: I’ll be taking the points in this exciting outing. Give me Portland +4
– @BlairTalksBall
If you liked today’s picks check out my top contenders for NBA League MVP
