It seems like every week recently has had the “Biggest game of the year” label on it for the Patriots. And while that term certainly gets thrown around far too much, I think it more than applies for Week 13. The Pats and Bills will face off in a game that’ll go a long way to deciding who will take the AFC East crown this year. Buffalo got a small taste of the top of the mountain and are looking to get back there. But the old guard has returned, forcibly took the title and they are once again sitting on the throne…for now. Do you like knock down, drag out brawls? You’ll like this game then. Here are the 3 ways the Patriots can beat the Bill on Monday.
Get Back To The Ground
The Patriots are at their best when they are running the ball and controlling the time of possession. They got away from that last week as the Titans edged them out in TOP by about 2 minutes. Luckily, the Titans offense turned the ball over so that didn’t end up hurting the Pats, but you can’t rely on that this week. Buffalo is a really good offense and the best way to beat a good offense is to play keep away. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson should get the ball early and often. While the Bills have the 6th best rush defense in the league, they’re not unbeatable. Good running backs/rushing teams have had success. The Colts, Titans and Chiefs (?) have all gone for well over 100 yards.
Take a look at the Colts game a couple weeks ago actually. Indy committed to the run and ran into little resistance tallying 264 yards. Now Jonathan Taylor may be better than Harris or Stevenson, but the Pats OL has a slight edge over the Colts. All that means is that New England should be able to run the ball Monday. Also when you run the ball, that opens up play action. And I’m not sure if you all know, but Mac Jones is pretty pretty good off play action…
Mac Jones is 13-of-19 for 146 yards, with 3 incompletions that hit his receivers square in the hands.
He’s run plays from the no-huddle, out of play-action, 4-wide sets, 6-OL personnel groupings, shotgun and under center.
The kid is more than all right.
— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) August 20, 2021
Mac Jones was 11-of-13 for 169 yards and a TD with play-action yesterday. #Patriots
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) October 25, 2021
Cover And Force Allen Into Trouble
I don’t think the Patriots are going to blitz a lot on Monday. Sure, there’ll be some delayed rushers, but on the whole, I don’t think that’s the best way to attack Allen. If I’m Belichick, I rush my traditional 4 and hope that you get some coverage sacks or force Allen to go through every progression. Barmore, Judon and Guy are good enough to beat their guy if they’ve given the time to. All it takes is an extra second and a half for those red sleeves to wreak havoc.
Josh Allen likes to extend plays as well. That’s where the linebacking comes into play (especially if Jamie Collins plays). You may want Collins or Hightower to act as a ‘spy’ and when Allen starts to roll out, they go at him. Force Allen to play fast and make a mistake or two, and you’ll be in good shape. And if the Bills decide to run the ball more, that’ll be playing right into Belichick’s gameplan. Buffalo isn’t going to win with their below average run game being the focal point.
Win The Trenches
It’s one of the oldest clichés in football. “The game is won in the trenches.” It’s valid here though on both sides of the ball. I already talked about how the Patriots need to beat their man on defense and get some pressure on Allen, but it may be even more important on offense. Buffalo get’s pressure on opposing QB’s on 30.2% of their dropbacks. That’s the most in the league. For reference, the Pats are 8th with 26.8%.
New England’s offensive line will have to be the best unit on the field all night. If you can keep Mac Jones upright, he can take advantage of Tre White’s absence. This game will most likely have a fair amount of screens and hot routes for the Pats, and that’s fine. Death by a million paper cuts. And with an 80% chance of snow, this game isn’t built to have a bunch of deep passes/long developing routes. That’s why winning the trenches on the run will so important as well. Basically, the Patriots need to play bully ball and push around Buffalo’s lines. If they can have success there, that’ll not only open up the run, but also make Mac’s night much easier.
Conclusion:
I can’t wait for this game. It’s going to be a brawl. A cold, snowy game between two AFC Contenders battling for their right to the Division. This is what football is all about. And the Bills Mafia is only going to add to the atmosphere. Going into the season, I pegged this game as an L for the Pats, but now I’m not so sure. New England is currently the hottest team in football riding a 6 game win streak while the Bills are looking a bit spotty the last 5 weeks.
They’ve beaten the Jets and Saints in convincing fashion, but they looked not so great in their Miami win. And then of course you have the inexcusable Jaguars loss and the absolute whooping they took at the hands of the Colts. The biggest thing in this game is going to be not making costly mistakes. The Pats are still undefeated when they don’t turn the ball over. I just trust Bill Belichick and the Patriots more than I do the Bills. I’m taking Pats over Bills as New England continues to put the NFL on notice.
(Featured Photo Credit www.syracuse.com)
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Mike Sullivan (@msully5433 on Twitter)
